欧亚系统科学研究会

New Directions for Understanding Systemic Risk

(前言)

【荐读语】下面我们推荐的文献《New Directions for Understanding Systemic Risk: A Report on a Conference Cosponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the National Academy of Sciences》是上一篇的延伸读物。这个报告内容很丰富,观念很新,尤其值得关注系统科学发展和致力于“跨界”研究的人士认真阅读。
报告很长,在这里,我们先将“序言”翻译成中文,后面将陆续把其重要章节翻译成中文,以方便大家阅读。

                                                                           颜基义   2014年1月15日

Preface
Guarding against systemic risk in the financial system is a key undertaking for central banks. Defining this type of risk is difficult, but managing it with precision is harder still. Complicating this task is the fact that institutional consolidation, a broadening range of financial products, and greater connectivity among firms have in recent decades materially changed the nature of systemic risk in the financial system.

在金融体系中防范系统性风险乃是中央银行的关键性保证。要确定这种风险的类型固然困难,但要对它进行精确的管理就更加困难。这项任务之所以变得复杂,乃是基于这样的事实:在近几十年中,制构僵化、 金融产品范围不断扩大、以及公司之间的连通程度剧增,都大大改变了金融体系中系统性风险的本质。

To stimulate fresh thinking on systemic risk, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the National Research Council’s Board on Mathematical Sciences and Their Applications held a conference, “New Directions for Understanding Systemic Risk,” in May 2006. The main goal of the sessions was to explore parallels between systemic risk in the financial sector and in selected domains of engineering, ecology, and other fields of science. The event attracted more than 100 experts on systemic risk from 22 countries, representing banks, regulators, investment firms, U.S. national laboratories, government agencies, and universities. In addition to bringing together many participants with backgrounds in banking, finance, and economics, the conference broadened the discussions by including the perspectives of mathematicians, statisticians, operations researchers, ecologists, engineers, and physicists.

为了激发关于系统性风险的新鲜思维,纽约美联储银行和国家研究理事会的数学科学和及其应用理事会于 2006 年 5 月举行一次会议,主题是"理解系统性风险的新方向"。会议的主要目标在于 探讨金融行业与工程、 生态学、以及某些领域之间在系统性风险上的相似之处。此项活动吸引了来自 22 个国家 100 多名系统性风险专家,代表们来自银行、 监管机构、 投资公司、 美国国家实验室、 政府机构和大学。与会者除了有银行、 金融和经济学的背景外,还把讨论延伸到包括由数学家、 统计学家、 操作人员、 生态学家、 工程师和物理学家提出的种种观点。

Although the topic of systemic risk may call to mind the possibility of deliberate attacks, both cyber and terrorist, on the financial system, after careful consideration the conference organizers decided against emphasizing this source of systemic risk. They reasoned that such a focus would downplay the many ways in which systemic risks can arise during the financial system’s normal operations. Analysis of the risks of deliberate attacks might build on the concepts explored in the conference, but it would require additional considerations and tools.

提起系统性风险这个话题,就会联想到在金融系统上的蓄意攻击的可能性,既来自在网络上也来自恐怖分子,会议组织者经过仔细考虑之后决定反对那种只强调系统性风险的这种来源。他们的理是,这样强调的结果会忽视由于金融系统的正常操作而引起的很多系统风险。对于蓄意攻击这种风险的分析可能会成为回忆中加以探讨的的概念,但是还需要增加其他方面的考量和工具。

This report was prepared to share some of the insight and excitement generated by the conference and to encourage further cross-disciplinary conversations. It presents no National Research Council recommendations. The views expressed in this report are those of the authors and do not represent the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the Federal Reserve System, or the U.S. government. We hope that you find it useful and informative.

这份报告旨在分享一些会议所产生的洞察力和令人兴奋的见解,并进一步鼓励跨学科对话。会议表达了不属于国家研究理事会建议的观点。在本报告中表达的只是那些作者的意见,并不代表纽约美联储银行、 联邦储备系统或美国政府的意见。我们希望你能从中找应用和有益的信息。

(中文翻译:颜基义)

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